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In a challenging environment for figuring out what the economy will do next, it is important to know what to watch
The economy has been growing so fast that it makes sense that it will slow somewhat. What matters is when and by how much, and that is where things get difficult.
Economists are notoriously bad at forecasting changes in the economy and the unusual combination of moving parts—tax cuts, stimulus, trade feuds, very low but rising interest rates and high stock prices—puts them on even shakier ground.